Global Gold Prices Rise on Weak US Data; Central Bank Buying — Led by China

Source: Nation Thailand Publication Date: November 19, 2025 URL: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trading-investment/40058449

Gold prices climbed higher today as weaker-than-expected US economic data fueled recession fears, while central banks continued aggressive gold purchases, with China leading the charge in diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets.

Price Movements

Spot Gold Performance

• Current Price: $2,450 per ounce (up 2.1% from previous day)
• Daily High: $2,465 per ounce
• Weekly Gain: 3.8% increase
• Monthly Performance: Up 5.2% for November

Market Drivers

• US Economic Data: Weaker-than-expected retail sales and manufacturing data
• Fed Policy Uncertainty: Confusion over future interest rate decisions
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing Middle East conflicts
• Currency Weakness: US dollar depreciation supporting gold prices

Central Bank Gold Purchases

China’s Aggressive Buying

• Monthly Purchases: 45 tonnes in November (highest monthly total ever)
• Year-to-Date: 320 tonnes purchased in 2025
• Strategic Shift: Diversifying from US Treasuries to gold reserves
• Reserve Target: Aiming for 3,000 tonnes by 2030

Other Major Buyers

• India: 28 tonnes purchased this month for festive season demand
• Russia: 22 tonnes added to reserves amid sanctions
• Turkey: 15 tonnes in ongoing reserve diversification
• Poland: 12 tonnes as part of NATO-aligned diversification strategy

Global Central Bank Trends

• Total 2025 Purchases: 850 tonnes (highest annual total since 1967)
• Reserve Percentage: Gold now represents 12% of global central bank reserves
• Diversification Trend: Moving away from dollar-dominated portfolios
• Reserve Management: Gold seen as hedge against inflation and currency risks

US Economic Data Impact

Retail Sales Figures

• October Sales: Up only 0.1% (expected 0.4% increase)
• Core Retail Sales: Flat growth excluding volatile categories
• Automotive Sales: Down 2.3% due to high interest rates
• E-commerce: Only category showing strong growth

Manufacturing Indicators

• ISM Manufacturing: 46.2 (contraction territory below 50)
• Factory Orders: Down 1.8% from previous month
• Industrial Production: Flat growth with energy sector weakness
• Capacity Utilization: Declining to 77.8%

Market Sentiment Analysis

Safe-Haven Demand

• Institutional Buying: Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds increasing allocations
• Retail Investment: ETF inflows continuing despite high prices
• Jewelry Demand: Strong seasonal buying in key markets
• Industrial Demand: Steady consumption from technology and medical sectors

Inflation Hedge Appeal

• Global Inflation: Persistent inflationary pressures in major economies
• Currency Debasement Fears: Concerns over competitive devaluation
• Supply Chain Risks: Ongoing disruptions supporting higher prices
• Monetary Policy: Expected continued accommodative policies

Commodity Market Context

Precious Metals Performance

• Silver: Up 3.2% to $32.50 per ounce
• Platinum: Gained 1.8% on industrial demand recovery
• Palladium: Down 0.5% due to automotive sector slowdown
• Rhodium: Stable with limited supply

Broader Commodity Trends

• Oil Prices: Brent crude up 1.2% to $85 per barrel
• Copper: Gained 2.1% on China stimulus expectations
• Agricultural Commodities: Mixed performance with weather impacts
• Base Metals: Generally stronger on global growth optimism

Technical Analysis

Gold Price Chart Patterns

• Support Level: $2,380 per ounce holding firm
• Resistance Level: $2,500 psychological barrier
• Moving Averages: 50-day MA at $2,350 providing support
• Relative Strength: Gold outperforming other commodities

Trading Volume

• Spot Market: Record daily trading volume of 15 million ounces
• Futures Market: Open interest up 5% this week
• ETF Holdings: SPDR Gold Trust holdings stable at 900 tonnes
• Options Activity: Increased put buying signaling caution

Economic Implications

For Emerging Markets

• Reserve Accumulation: Gold purchases strengthening balance sheets
• Currency Stability: Gold as hedge against domestic currency volatility
• Investment Inflows: Attracting foreign capital to commodity-rich economies
• Policy Flexibility: Enhanced monetary policy options

For Global Economy

• Inflation Expectations: Gold as leading indicator of inflation trends
• Risk Assessment: Market stress levels and recession probabilities
• Policy Transmission: Impact on central bank policy decisions
• Financial Stability: Systemic risk implications of gold market movements

Investment Strategies

For Individual Investors

• Long-term Holding: Gold as portfolio diversification tool
• Dollar-cost Averaging: Regular investments regardless of price volatility
• Physical Gold: Bullion coins and bars for direct ownership
• Gold Mining Stocks: Leveraged exposure to gold price movements

For Institutional Investors

• Reserve Allocation: Increasing gold percentage in investment portfolios
• Hedge Funds: Gold positions as macroeconomic hedge
• Sovereign Wealth Funds: Strategic allocation to precious metals
• Pension Funds: Gold as inflation protection for retirement savings

Future Outlook

Price Projections

• Short-term: $2,400-2,550 range expected
• 2026 Average: $2,350 per ounce consensus forecast
• Long-term: $3,000 per ounce potential with continued buying
• Key Drivers: Central bank demand and economic uncertainty

Supply and Demand Dynamics

• Mine Production: Stable at 3,200 tonnes annually
• Recycling: Secondary supply from jewelry and electronics
• Investment Demand: Growing institutional and retail interest
• Industrial Demand: Steady consumption from technology sector

Market Risks

Potential Headwinds

• US Economic Recovery: Stronger growth reducing safe-haven appeal
• Interest Rate Increases: Higher rates making gold less attractive
• Geopolitical Resolution: Reduced tensions lowering risk premiums
• Supply Disruptions: Mining interruptions or export restrictions

Supporting Factors

• Structural Deficits: Persistent global imbalances supporting prices
• Reserve Diversification: Ongoing shift from dollar assets
• Inflation Concerns: Persistent inflationary pressures
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing global conflicts and tensions

Gold’s price surge reflects broader market concerns about global economic stability, with central bank buying providing strong fundamental support for continued price strength.