PTT Expects Oil Prices in 2026 to Stay Low as OPEC+ Supply Remains Ample

Source: Nation Thailand Publication Date: November 15, 2025 URL: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/40058499

Thailand’s state-owned energy conglomerate PTT has forecasted that oil prices will remain subdued in 2026, citing ample crude supply from OPEC+ producers and moderating global demand growth.

PTT Market Outlook

Price Forecast

• 2026 Average: $55-65 per barrel Brent crude
• Current Price: $58 per barrel (stable from previous quarter)
• Supply Factors: OPEC+ maintaining production levels
• Demand Growth: 1.5-2.0% annual increase expected

Key Assumptions

• OPEC+ Compliance: Continued adherence to production quotas
• US Production: Stable shale oil output around 13 million barrels per day
• China Demand: Moderate recovery in Chinese oil consumption
• Global Inventory: Adequate commercial crude inventories

Supply-Side Dynamics

OPEC+ Production Strategy

• Current Output: 40.5 million barrels per day
• Quota Compliance: 95%+ adherence to agreed production levels
• Saudi Arabia Position: Maintaining market stability role
• Russian Participation: Continued cooperation despite sanctions

Non-OPEC+ Supply

• US Shale: Technology improvements maintaining output levels
• Brazil and Canada: Continued growth in offshore and oil sands production
• Middle East Non-OPEC: UAE and Kuwait maintaining production
• African Producers: Nigeria and Angola stabilizing output

Demand-Side Factors

Global Economic Context

• GDP Growth: 2.5-3.0% global growth forecast
• China Recovery: Moderate rebound in industrial activity
• US Economy: Stable growth with moderating inflation
• Europe: Continued energy transition but stable demand

Sector-Specific Demand

• Transportation: Continued shift toward electric vehicles
• Industrial: Recovery in manufacturing but efficiency gains
• Aviation: Gradual recovery post-pandemic
• Maritime: Stable shipping fuel demand

Thailand-Specific Implications

PTT Business Impact

• Refining Margins: Pressure on domestic refining profitability
• Import Costs: Lower crude import costs benefiting downstream operations
• Retail Pricing: Stable pump prices supporting consumer spending
• Investment Plans: Continued focus on renewable energy transition

Energy Security

• Strategic Reserves: Maintaining adequate crude inventories
• Diversification: Continued investment in LNG and renewables
• Regional Cooperation: ASEAN energy security initiatives
• Supply Chain Resilience: Multiple sourcing strategies

Market Risk Factors

Potential Upside Pressures

• Geopolitical Tensions: Middle East conflicts or supply disruptions
• US Sanctions: Potential impacts on Iranian or Venezuelan production
• Weather Events: Hurricanes affecting US Gulf Coast production
• Infrastructure Issues: Pipeline constraints or refinery outages

Potential Downside Pressures

• Demand Slowdown: Global economic recession scenarios
• OPEC+ Discipline: Potential breakdown in production agreements
• Renewable Transition: Accelerated shift away from fossil fuels
• Inventory Builds: Excessive commercial crude stock accumulation

PTT Strategic Response

Business Model Adaptation

• Downstream Focus: Emphasis on retail, petrochemicals, and renewables
• Efficiency Improvements: Cost reduction and operational optimization
• Digital Transformation: Technology adoption for competitive advantage
• Sustainability Initiatives: ESG-focused business development

Investment Priorities

• Renewable Energy: Accelerated solar, wind, and bioenergy projects
• Carbon Transition: Investment in carbon capture and hydrogen technologies
• Digital Platforms: Energy trading and customer service digitalization
• Regional Expansion: Growth in neighboring ASEAN markets

Broader Economic Impact

Thailand’s Energy Costs

• Inflation Pressure: Lower oil prices supporting overall inflation control
• Trade Balance: Reduced energy import costs improving current account
• Business Costs: Lower fuel costs benefiting transportation and manufacturing
• Consumer Spending: More disposable income for households

Global Economic Implications

• Developing Countries: Energy-importing nations benefit from lower costs
• Oil Exporters: Fiscal pressure on OPEC+ member budgets
• Financial Markets: Reduced volatility in energy commodity markets
• Investment Flows: Shift toward renewable energy investments

Long-term Energy Transition

PTT’s 2030 Vision

• Renewable Share: 30% of energy portfolio from clean sources
• Carbon Neutrality: Net-zero carbon emissions by 2050
• Digital Integration: AI and IoT in energy operations
• Customer Evolution: From energy supplier to sustainability partner

Industry Transformation

• Electrification: Growth in EV charging infrastructure
• Hydrogen Economy: Investment in clean hydrogen production
• Circular Economy: Waste-to-energy and recycling initiatives
• Energy Storage: Battery technology and grid storage solutions

Market Intelligence Insights

Price Forecasting Methodology

• Fundamental Analysis: Supply-demand balance assessment
• Technical Indicators: Chart patterns and market sentiment
• Geopolitical Risk: Assessment of global political stability
• Economic Indicators: Correlation with GDP growth and inflation

Scenario Planning

• Base Case: $60 per barrel average with moderate volatility
• Bull Case: $75 per barrel with supply disruptions
• Bear Case: $45 per barrel with demand recession
• Black Swan: Extreme events requiring strategic responses

Stakeholder Implications

Government Policy

• Energy Security: Continued focus on domestic energy independence
• Climate Policy: Alignment with carbon reduction commitments
• Economic Planning: Energy price assumptions in budget planning
• International Relations: Energy diplomacy with producing countries

Business Sector Response

• Cost Management: Fuel efficiency and alternative energy adoption
• Supply Chain: Diversification and risk management strategies
• Investment Planning: Long-term energy price assumptions
• Sustainability Reporting: ESG performance and carbon footprint management

PTT’s cautious outlook on oil prices reflects a maturing global energy market where supply discipline and demand moderation are likely to maintain price stability despite geopolitical uncertainties.