Outlook for agriculture better in 2025

Source: Bangkok Post Publication Date: December 21, 2024 URL: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2924441/outlook-for-agriculture-better-in-2025

Thailand’s agriculture sector should record growth between 1.8% and 2.8% next year, helped by factors such as secure water resources, an improving economy and higher demand for farm products in the global market.

The upbeat forecast stands in contrast to this year, when drought in the early months and heavy floods in the last quarter shaved 1.1% off growth, along with higher costs of production and geopolitical issues.

Growth in 2024 fell 1.7% in the cropping sector, 2.8% in the fisheries sector, and 0.5% in the agricultural services sector, but livestock gained 3.2% and forestry was up 2.2% from the year before.

Every region experienced weakening overall growth, except the Northeast where expansion of 1.7% was reported. A decline of 1% was reported in the North, 1.2% in the central region, 2.3% in the South, and 2.5% in the East.

“We expect to see an improving situation next year from government economic policy and higher demand in the global market,” said Mr Chantanon. “We hope to see growth of 1.8% to 2.8%, in which the cropping sector should see an improvement of 2.5-3.5%.”

The livestock sector is expected to expand 2-3%, fisheries 1.5-2.5%, and forestry 2-3%.

Key Drivers for 2025

Water Security

The government has invested heavily in water infrastructure, including reservoirs, irrigation systems, and water management technology. This should help mitigate the impact of climate variability.

Economic Recovery

Thailand’s overall economic recovery should boost domestic demand for agricultural products and improve farmers’ purchasing power for inputs.

Global Demand

Increasing global population and changing dietary preferences are expected to drive demand for Thai agricultural products, particularly rice, rubber, and tropical fruits.

Technology Adoption

More farmers are expected to adopt precision agriculture technologies, digital farming platforms, and sustainable farming practices.

Sector-Specific Forecasts

Rice

Rubber

Fisheries

Fruits and Vegetables

Challenges Ahead

While the outlook is positive, several challenges remain:

Climate Change

Increasing frequency of extreme weather events could impact production and require ongoing investment in adaptation measures.

Input Costs

Rising costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and labor could squeeze farmer margins if not offset by productivity gains.

Market Access

Maintaining and expanding market access in the face of protectionist policies and changing trade agreements.

Labor Shortage

The agricultural sector continues to face labor shortages as younger generations move to urban areas.

Government Initiatives

The government has outlined several initiatives to support agricultural growth:

Infrastructure Development

Continued investment in irrigation systems, rural roads, and cold chain facilities.

Technology Promotion

Programs to accelerate adoption of digital farming technologies and precision agriculture.

Market Development

Support for export promotion, market diversification, and value-added processing.

Sustainable Agriculture

Incentives for carbon-neutral farming practices and environmental conservation.

Investment Opportunities

The improving outlook is expected to attract investment in:

Agribusiness

Processing facilities, cold chain infrastructure, and export-oriented operations.

Technology

IoT sensors, AI platforms, and digital farming solutions.

Sustainable Practices

Carbon credit programs, organic farming, and regenerative agriculture.

Export Services

Logistics, quality assurance, and market intelligence services.

Overall, the agricultural sector is poised for recovery in 2025, supported by government policies, technological advancements, and improving market conditions.