Source: Nation Thailand Publication Date: December 15, 2024 URL: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/40044593
Chantanon Wannakejohn, secretary general of the OAE, said the GDP for the agricultural sector in 2025 is projected to grow by 1.8-2.8%, valued between 698.55 billion and 705.41 billion baht. Key supporting factors include increased rainfall from the La Niña phenomenon, expected to persist until February. This will benefit dry-season crop cultivation, ensuring sufficient water for crop growth and subsequent planting cycles.
The rice sector is expected to maintain stability with production estimated at 19.5 million tonnes, similar to 2024 levels. Export volumes are projected at 7.5 million tonnes, down slightly from last year’s record high, but prices are expected to remain competitive due to Thailand’s quality advantage.
Natural rubber prices are forecast to improve in 2025, supported by global demand recovery. Production is expected to increase by 5-7%, with exports reaching 3.8 million tonnes. The OAE notes that sustainable rubber certification will become increasingly important for maintaining market access.
Durian, including fresh fruit and products, are forecast to grow despite intensified competition. Strong international demand continues, but Thailand may face price and market-share challenges from competitors, particularly Vietnam. Farmers and exporters must prioritise quality production and export standards to maintain their market position.
Mango exports are expected to increase by 10-15%, driven by expanding markets in China and the Middle East. The OAE recommends investment in post-harvest technology to maintain fruit quality during long-distance transportation.
Fishery products, including shrimp and fish, are projected to grow by 2-3% in value terms. Aquaculture expansion and value-added processing will be key drivers. The industry faces challenges from disease management and environmental regulations, but export demand remains strong.
Sugarcane production is expected to increase by 3-5%, supporting sugar exports of approximately 6 million tonnes. The industry continues to focus on efficiency improvements and by-product utilization.
While La Niña is expected to bring beneficial rainfall, the OAE warns of potential flooding in some regions. Farmers are advised to prepare contingency plans and adopt climate-resilient farming practices.
Increased competition from neighboring countries requires Thailand to emphasize quality, food safety, and sustainable production practices.
Rising costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and labor necessitate efficiency improvements and alternative input sources.
The OAE recommends several measures to support agricultural growth:
This comprehensive outlook provides valuable guidance for farmers, exporters, and policymakers planning for the 2025 agricultural season.